Big Changes in Hollywood?

[Bromptonboy]

Some food for thought here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/steven-spielberg-predicts-implosion-film-567604
George Lucas echoed Spielberg's sentiments at an event touting the opening of a new USC School of Cinematic Arts building, saying big changes are in store.

Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." He also said that Lincoln came "this close" to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release.

George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months.

The two legendary filmmakers, along with CNBC anchor Julia Boorstin and Microsoft president of interactive entertainment business Don Mattrick, were speaking at the University of Southern California as part of the festivities surrounding the official opening of the Interactive Media Building, three stories high and part of the USC School of Cinematic Arts.
Lucas and Spielberg told USC students that they are learning about the industry at an extraordinary time of upheaval, where even proven talents find it difficult to get movies into theaters. Some ideas from young filmmakers "are too fringe-y for the movies," Spielberg said. "That's the big danger, and there's eventually going to be an implosion — or a big meltdown. There's going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen megabudget movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that's going to change the paradigm."
Lucas lamented the high cost of marketing movies and the urge to make them for the masses while ignoring niche audiences. He called cable television "much more adventurous" than film nowadays.

"I think eventually the Lincolns will go away and they're going to be on television," Lucas said. "As mine almost was," Spielberg interjected. "This close -- ask HBO -- this close."
"We're talking Lincoln and Red Tails -- we barely got them into theaters. You're talking about Steven Spielberg and George Lucas can't get their movie into a theater," Lucas said. "I got more people into Lincoln than you got into Red Tails," Spielberg joked.
Spielberg added that he had to co-own his own studio in order to get Lincoln into theaters.
"The pathway to get into theaters is really getting smaller and smaller," Lucas said.
Mattrick and Spielberg also praised Netflix, prompting Boorstin to ask Spielberg if he planned to make original content for the Internet streamer. "I have nothing to announce," said the director.
Lucas and Spielberg also spoke of vast differences between filmmaking and video games because the latter hasn't been able to tell stories and make consumers care about the characters. Which isn't to say the two worlds aren't connected. Spielberg, in fact, has teamed with Microsoft to make a "TV" show for Xbox 360 based on the game Halo and he is making a movie based on the Electronic Arts game Need for Speed.

[ElfManDan]

The whole article is interesting, but the last like 3 sentences are "say what?!" So "video games haven't been able to tell stories or get consumers to care about characters." He obviously doesn't play games much, they've been making good story and connectable characters for a long time. I was so invested in Legends of Zelda: Ocarina of Time when I first played it, that's still an amazing story and game. Honestly I think video games can connect better with consumers as they are really have to involve themselves into the characters actions.

And then he turns around and says I'm gonna make a Need for Speed movie, cause those games always have great stories and characters. And I don't think I trust him now to make a Halo TV show if he's never played the games, cause if he had he would know that it is good story and he apparently doesn't even have a clue about it.

[Bryancd]

I was watching that yesterday and they are playing bits of the interview again today. I agree whole and think it continues to point to the potential upside for comapnies like Netflix (hint,hint... ;)).

[Geekyfanboy]

What I find funny are these guys are the creators of some of the biggest blockbusters in the world, they started what they see now as being the downfall of Hollywood. :/

[Bryancd]

What I find funny are these guys are the creators of some of the biggest blockbusters in the world, they started what they see now as being the downfall of Hollywood. :/

Well I think they are acknowledging it was and always has been an unsustainable business model. In the abstract I think they are likely correct, the current model of film funding, production, distribution, and end user experience is about to go through a dramatic change. 3D was just the first of what has become a myriad of efforts for studios and theatre owners to increase their revenue per ticket sale, including seat delivered food and beverage services and motion seating. But that's not going to move the needle enough to overcome the fact that content is being created separate from the traditional studio system and delivery has become open source.

[Rico]

What I find funny are these guys are the creators of some of the biggest blockbusters in the world, they started what they see now as being the downfall of Hollywood. :/

Sort of true, but George Lucas especially has stated movies costs have gotten crazy - Spielberg too has said that for awhile now.  Also, if you look back in their careers their early hit films were really done for fairly small budgets for the time.  Lately, studios have been churning out product hoping for the next big hit.  I feel strongly that a great story, with good actors doesn't need to cost $250 million plus.

[Ensign Random]

I think it's interesting that they mention netflix and cable options. I think the explosion of the cutting edge HBO/Cable shows has just started. I also agree with his mention of niche audiences. You can make a good film that wouldn't get back $250 million theatre price tag but it's dedicated fans could stream it.

[Bromptonboy]

I think it's interesting that they mention netflix and cable options. I think the explosion of the cutting edge HBO/Cable shows has just started. I also agree with his mention of niche audiences. You can make a good film that wouldn't get back $250 million theatre price tag but it's dedicated fans could stream it.

Yes, good point.  I would rather see many of the HBO shows over most new movies these days.

[KingIsaacLinksr]

Movies are getting too homogenized. Think I've made this complaint before, but after seeing the trailers before Star Trek Into Darkness and Furious 6, all I remember is that its a ton of action flicks with barely any distinguishing characteristics besides HUGE EXPLOSIONS!!!!!!! Good movies may be out there for me to watch, but they get drowned out by all the explosions.

Also, they have clearly never played Mass Effect, Portal or any number of widely acclaimed story-driven games with engaging characters lately or they wouldn't have made that statement about videogames. Actually, what disturbs me about some AAA made videogames lately is that they are becoming too movie like with all of their cutscenes, limited game mechanics and linear, on-rail direction.

[Bryancd]

Spielberg may have been more prescient then some thought. I think he is spot on. Hearing people defending the current Hollywood studio model is beginning to sound like the recording industry circa 1996.

http://io9.com/is-hollywoods-glut-of-big-budget-blockbusters-doomed-t-967544709

[ChrisMC]

http://www.cracked.com/quick-fixes/4-reasons-2015-could-be-movie-industrys-worst-year-ever/

Cracked's article on the implosion of Hollywood due to mega-budgeted pictures is pretty interesting. They seem to think 2015 will be a bloodbath.