Facebook IPO

[Rico]

So, who's buying?

Facebook Inc. filed for an initial public offering Wednesday that could value the social network between $75 billion and $100 billion, putting the company on track for one of the biggest U.S. stock-market debuts of all time.

The company hopes to raise as much as $10 billion when it begins selling shares this spring, said people familiar with the matter. Potential buyers got their first look at its financials Wednesday, which showed the company produced a $1 billion profit last year from $3.71 billion in revenues. The company derives 85% of those revenues from advertising, with the rest from social gaming and other fees....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204879004577110780078310366.html

[Bromptonboy]

Ok Bryan, what is your take?  This one worth it? 

[KingIsaacLinksr]

The amount that they depend on Zynga is bad.  Consider Zynga's stock (last I heard) is falling and they are being accused of plagiarism by multiple parties, its not making the company look good right now.

King

[Bryancd]

Well, no doubt anyone who is able to receive share at the initial offering price will make a lot of money very quickly. And no, I won't be getting any for my clients. These shares will go to only the largest and most profitable client relationships at the various underwritting firms. Well Fargo isn't part of the syndicate group in any case. It will be interesting how much the share are bid up for and how much additional value the open market awards the company. It could be a $150 Billion dollar company at the end of the first day of trading if the shares really skyrocket. Is the company worth even $75-$100 Billion? Maybe, depends if they can actually demonstrate they can monetize all the eyeballs they have.

[Rico]

I just want one share so I get all that "junk" mail shareholders get - like voting stuff, annual reports, etc. 

[Bryancd]

Apple has $100 Billion in CASH so theoretically they could just write a check and buy FaceBook. I wouldn't be over concerned with their exposure to Zynga. That's about 12% of their revenue right now. I think Zynga needs to be looking over their shoulder because the kind of gaming experience they provide can easily be done by other aggressive companies. The issue FaceBook faces is one of culture, really. Can Mark Z. function in an environment where he is answerable to shareholders? Right now he calls the shots with very little outside influence. That's about to change. I wouldn't be surprised if a few years from now he looks to do something new. It's the nature of guys like him, innovate or die. Steve Jobs was one of the few examples of an uber creative CEO who could still deal with being a public company. Of course his success created a corporate and shareholder culture where he was King and could do no wrong. Apple was fortunate that that perception turned out to be correct.

[Bryancd]

I just want one share so I get all that "junk" mail shareholders get - like voting stuff, annual reports, etc. 

Proxy mailing are interesting. I will likely buy some at some point, I believe they have something there that could be of great future value.

[KingIsaacLinksr]

Apple has $100 Billion in CASH so theoretically they could just write a check and buy FaceBook. I wouldn't be over concerned with their exposure to Zynga. That's about 12% of their revenue right now. I think Zynga needs to be looking over their shoulder because the kind of gaming experience they provide can easily be done by other aggressive companies. The issue FaceBook faces is one of culture, really. Can Mark Z. function in an environment where he is answerable to shareholders? Right now he calls the shots with very little outside influence. That's about to change. I wouldn't be surprised if a few years from now he looks to do something new. It's the nature of guys like him, innovate or die. Steve Jobs was one of the few examples of an uber creative CEO who could still deal with being a public company. Of course his success created a corporate and shareholder culture where he was King and could do no wrong. Apple was fortunate that that perception turned out to be correct.

Your right about Zynga, its them, not FB that should be concerned in the long run.  Zynga is using a market scheme that will exhaust itself in the long term.  Basically, people can't stand to feel like they are cheated out of their money and Freemium games like theirs play with that in mind.  I don't think I've ever heard anyone quit playing Farmville and say "wow, what a great experience that was."  Its usually: "I feel like I got cheated". 

And, there was a report that it costs Zynga hundreds of dollars per person that plays their games.  Whether by marketing or server costs, etc and so forth.  That in itself isn't very sustainable if your losing players.

But that's just my perspective, maybe I'm wrong.

King

[Feathers]

But that's just my perspective, maybe I'm wrong.

What? But that would be unheard of!

(Sorry, that was too well set up to resist)

[Rico]

I kind of like Mark Zuckerberg.  The guy wears a sweatshirt and a hoodie to Wall Street investor meetings.  My kind of billionaire! 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/mark-zuckerberg/9257520/Mark-Zuckerberg-wears-hoodie-to-Facebook-investor-meetings.html

[Rico]

Well, investors say Facebook is overvalued at $96 billion.  Yeah, I'd only says it's worth maybe $91.5345 billion.  I mean, come on!  This kind of money is really hard to imagine.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/may/11/facebook-ipo-overvalued-investors

[MARKO]

Do you think Facebook will be sustainable? People today are always jumping ship for the next thing.... and can Facebook be around for the long haul? I am in the technology business and I'm  on line everyday with my work and i do not have a facebook account and i never been to the site. I am not alone in this i know many of my friends.... yes younger friends who feel the same. If i need to connect to someone and share information i can always send over an email or   go old school and make a "PHONE CALL" Having worked in the IT field for the last 17 yrs i see the last few years where no one talks on the phone anymore.... most of my Company deals are done via email with no Human interaction at all.... gone are the days in which we actually spoke on the phone and Bonded and formed lasting business friendships. RANT over.... TGIF everyone of you awesome people!

[KingIsaacLinksr]

Do you think Facebook will be sustainable? People today are always jumping ship for the next thing.... and can Facebook be around for the long haul? I am in the technology business and I'm  on line everyday with my work and i do not have a facebook account and i never been to the site. I am not alone in this i know many of my friends.... yes younger friends who feel the same. If i need to connect to someone and share information i can always send over an email or   go old school and make a "PHONE CALL" Having worked in the IT field for the last 17 yrs i see the last few years where no one talks on the phone anymore.... most of my Company deals are done via email with no Human interaction at all.... gone are the days in which we actually spoke on the phone and Bonded and formed lasting business friendships. RANT over.... TGIF everyone of you awesome people!

I don't want business friendships personally. Anything tied with a business has always backfired on me. Ugh, inner-work politics....

Is FB sustainable?  Idk it might be. YouTube seems to be a website that is too big to fail at this point. FB might have reached that same level, but its hard to say for certain. For now, its a very valuable business due to all the people being on it. How long that will last is impossible to know for certain.

If you have friends outside of FB, great! You have friends there. Myself, I have friends overseas and in the military who I don't get to converse with much anymore. Calling each other is pretty darn tricky when you factor in timezones and Twitter/Facebook helps with that problem. And I'd like to think I've made some good friends over the internet. Just like calling has helped form long lasting relationships with your friends, FB and Twitter has done the same for me. Though I still use the phone to talk to some of mine.

King

[Dangelus]

Crazy.

[Bromptonboy]

Looks like Eduardo Saverin is giving up his US citizenship before the IPO:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-11/facebook-co-founder-saverin-gives-up-u-s-citizenship-before-ipo.html